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2024-12-14 03:32:18

Huatai Securities: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp in December, but the path of interest rate cut in 2025 is highly uncertain. Huatai Securities said that the overall inflation in November in the United States was in line with expectations, and the slight cooling of service inflation partially eased the market's concerns about inflation rebound. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp in December, but the path of interest rate cut in 2025 is highly uncertain. Recently, the overall economic momentum of the United States has rebounded: from September to November, the PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States has rebounded for three consecutive months; After the election, enterprises, especially small enterprises, are expected to improve, and the recent NFIB SME confidence index has rebounded significantly; The latest Atlanta GDP Now shows that the fourth quarter GDP growth rate of the United States is 3.3% year-on-year. However, considering that the unemployment rate data rebounded in November, and the recent inflation is still relatively moderate, we expect that the recent data may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates at its December meeting next week. However, in 2025, the growth and inflation path of the United States was disturbed by the Trump policy, and the Federal Reserve may "make a camera choice" on the basis of watching the overall economic trend. There is uncertainty in the path of interest rate cut in 2025.CITIC Securities: The interest rate of the 10-year US bond may show an upward trend due to factors such as monetary policy next year. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, historically, the actual short-term interest rate expectation in the interest rate reduction cycle since 1983 is usually the main driving force for the downward trend of the 10-year US bond interest rate, while the term premium may rise in the interest rate reduction cycle due to factors such as supply and demand, deficit concerns and external shocks. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the short-term 4.0% will be the support level of the 10-year US bond interest rate, and the 10-year US bond interest rate may show an upward trend next year due to factors such as monetary policy and "Trump transaction".South Korean President Yin Xiyue: The opposition party does not recognize the president.


The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.075%.Australia's ASX 200 index narrowed to 0.1%, and the Australian dollar increased. The just released Australian employment data was better than expected.Nepal's Everest region will ban commercial helicopter flights to protect the local economy and wildlife. On December 11th, local officials in Nepal said that the local government and other stakeholders have decided to ban commercial helicopter flights in the Everest region from January 1st next year to protect the local economy and wildlife. Mingema Chiri Sherpa, mayor of Khumbasan Lamu, Mount Everest, Nepal, said on the same day that the decision was made because the increase in commercial helicopter flights in Mount Everest in recent years has shortened the stay time of tourists, and helicopter noise has also interfered with wildlife in nearby national parks. Relevant decisions are being sent to helicopter operators, travel agencies and tourism enterprises through letters.


South Korea's finance minister said that he would pay close attention to the financial market and respond to boost investor sentiment when necessary.On the occasion of Yin Xiyue's speech, the increase of KOSPI index in South Korea narrowed to 0.3%, and it rose by 1.1% earlier.18 shares were rated by brokers, and Yuhetian's target increased by 54.72%. On December 11th, a total of 18 shares were rated by brokers, and 6 of them announced their target prices. According to the highest target price, Yuhetian, Steady Medical Care and Fulongma ranked in the top, with increases of 54.72%, 19.96% and 17.62% respectively. Judging from the direction of rating adjustment, the ratings of 12 stocks remain unchanged and 6 stocks are rated for the first time. In addition, one stock attracted the attention of many brokers, and Hagrid Communications was ranked in the top number, with two brokers rating it respectively. Judging from the Wind industry to which the rated stocks are bought, the number of rated stocks for technical hardware and equipment, capital goods and materials II is the largest, with 4, 3 and 2 respectively.

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